The project will run for a period of 9 months and is broken down into three work packages. The scope of each work package is shown below with clearly defined deliverables.
Phase One
- Consolidated list of non-conventional solutions considered for the risk analysis.
- Summarised outputs of expert interviews.
- Detailed risk analysis of each non-conventional solution using PESTLE framework and associated insights.
- Risk curves for each solution prioritised which will consist of the different risk types relevant to the solution along with a probability function outlining risk of sub-optimal outputs put together evidenced by desk research of relevant projects, lab tests/simulations and expert interviews.
Phase Two
- Set of quality controlled input data to be used for core modelling and sensitivity analysis.
- Quantitative outputs from detailed core network modelling indicating materiality of various factors including network types.
- Quantitative outputs from sensitivity analysis using network modelling (IC) which will test factors beyond core modelling as identified in the 1st phase.
Phase Three
- Key insights from desk research and interviews in terms of non-conventional risk identification and communication in both within and outside the energy sector.
- List of key stakeholders in the process of risk communication and a brief profile of motivations and expectations.
- Draft risk communication framework to act as high-level guidance on estimating and communicating risks focusing on glossary of terms, key metrics, methods and presentation styles.
- Close down report summarising method, key learnings, recommendations and identified next steps.
Benefits
This project will be a success if:
- Understanding of risks associated with deployment of non-conventional network assets is improved compared with current understanding and these learnings are documented coherently. Where understanding is not improved any further, a clear path to improving understanding is documented, as well as the failures/learnings encountered by this project.
- A model is developed/configured that is able to test different investment scenarios in order to provide risk outputs, which can help inform investment and strategy decisions. Where a model is created to test different scenarios but is unable to provide usable risk outcomes to inform investment decisions then a clear roadmap on how to improve the model to meet this goal must be provided as well as documenting lessons learned/failures.
- A framework/communication strategy is created that utilises the learning from this project to inform DNOs of the different risks associated with non-conventional network assets. Where learnings are inadequate to produce a framework/communication strategy then learnings must be documented with a clear research path necessary to meet this objective.